How Things Can Change In Less Than A Day
by Dave Levine
At about 12:30 a.m. this morning, I posted the following piece titled "Soetoro-Obama's Delegate Problem: He Needs To Win Some Key Toss-Up States And Steal One 'Leaning Romney' State To Win" at
Romney was at 191 "locked" delegates, 270 needed to win.
Well, today, RCP (RealClearPolitics) posted the following at
Romney has taken the lead in "locked" delegates with 206 delegates, North Carolina having been given him by pollsters. There is now almost no way that Soetoro-Obama can get to 270 short of a great performance on Monday night's final debate and good economic news which isn't coming.
Soetoro-Obama will have to win the following states to overcome Romney's surge, the three most important (besides OH) being PA, MO and MI, Romney's home state:
MI, MO, NH, NV, OH, PA and WI
All of the above except MO are "toss ups". MO is in the "leaning Romney" section. Wisconsin should be with Ryan being on the Romney ticket.
Even if Soetoro-Obama can pull out wins in MI, MO, OH, PA and WI, he would STILL have to win NV to win. He couldn't do it with NH with its paltry 4 delegates.
But Soetoro-Obama can't possibly win all the above states. He's simply too unpopular now as President. Too many things are going against him--gas prices, unemployment, Libya, EO DREAM Act, his talking down 1070 as an unjust law and a poor performance in the first debate. But the other thing he can't control (though he tried to peg Romney as "a right-wing" candidate in Tuesday's debate)--Romney being in fact a liberal who appeals to disaffected Democrat voters sick of Soetoro-Obama's policies.